Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.

The CCI is falling again. After the increase of consumer confidence in September, it dropped to a level similar to June, before the trend had reversed over the remaining summer months. The CCI decreased from -29.5 in September to -32.5 in October, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moving downwards.

The CCI is catching up. After decreasing consumer confidence during the summer, the CCI rose by 4.7 index points in September (from -34.2 in August to -29.5 in September). Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moved upwards in tandem. The Present Situation Index increased by 3 index points, and the Expectations Index by 6.3.

Consumer confidence decreases over the summer. After the upward trend observed starting in April, consumer confidence fell in July and August to almost equal levels, with a slight increase in August. In July, the overall index decreased by 2.3 points, from -32.1 in June to -34.4 in July. In August, it slightly increased to -34.2.

A minor increase in consumer confidence in June 2021. The trend of increasing CCI continued from March 2021, this time with a slight 0.9 percentage point increase (from -33.2 in May to -32.1 in June) after a significant jump of 5 points from the previous month.